Implementation of the Kalman Filter for a Geostatistical Bivariate Spatiotemporal Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity in Aquifers

Abstract

The estimation of the hydraulic parameters of an aquifer such as the hydraulic conductivity is somehow complicated due to its heterogeneity, on the other hand field and laboratory tests are both time consuming and costly. The use of geostatistical-based techniques for data assimilation could represent an alternative tool that allows the use of space-time aquifer behaviour to characterize hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity. In this paper, a spatiotemporal bivariate methodology was implemented combining historical hydraulic head data with hydraulic conductivity sparse data in order to obtain an estimate of the spatial distribution of the latter variable. This approach takes advantage of the correlation between the hydraulic conductivity (K) and the hydraulic head (H) behaviour through time. In order to evaluate this approach, a synthetic experiment was constructed through a transitory numerical flow-model that simulates hydraulic head values in a horizontally-heterogeneous aquifer. Geostatistical tools were used to describe the correlation between simulated spatiotemporal data of hydraulic head and the spatial distribution of the hydraulic conductivity in a group of model nodes. Subsequently, the Kalman filter was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity values at nonsampled sites. The results showed acceptable differences between estimated and synthetic hydraulic conductivity data, with low estimate error variances (predominating the 1 m2/day2 value for K for all the cases, however, the smallest number of cells with values above 2 m2/day2 correspond to the bivariate spatiotemporal case) and the best agreement between the estimated errors and the selected model variance (SMSE values of 0.574 and 0.469) were found for the bivariate cases, which suggests that the implemented methodology could be used for reducing calibration efforts, particularly when the hydraulic parameters data are scarce.